National bureau of economic research papers

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National bureau of economic research papers

In modelling anything, you want a model whose error across the whole possible sample space is smallest. To choose this, you want to estimate that full error based on observations of some subset of the whole space.

Obviously this is in general impossible to do exactly, but there are some incredibly useful tools to help us nonetheless.


An incredibly common tool is called cross validationof which your suggestion is one form. A more common form is to randomly partition your observations into k independent subsets of equal size the independence is crucial!

For each subset i, fit train in ML lingo your model on the observations not in subset i, and test the error on the observations in subset i. This will give you k different estimates of the generalization error. Combine them as appropriate averaging works, but you can be fancier.

Choose the model with the best estimated generalization error. There are issues with cross validation, compared to other more specialized techniques, but it would be crazy not to do anything at all to account for generalization error.

Model assessment and selection is covered more generally in one of my favorite intro to ML books, Elements of Statistical Learning.This paper considers the taxation of top incomes when the following conditions apply: (i) new ideas drive economic growth, (ii) the reward for creating a successful innovation is a top income, and (iii) innovation cannot be perfectly targeted by a separate research subsidy think about the.

National bureau of economic research papers

Migration as a Strategy for Household Finance: A Research Agenda on Remittances, Payments, and Development- Working Paper ().


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Clemens, Michael ; Ogden, Timothy N. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system.

Research @ BEA; Papers Papers. This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. This paper, made possible by support from the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), describes the work of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to develop estimates towards the.

authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes.

They have not been. The global financial crisis a decade ago had a profound impact on the fields in which economists work. Studies of beliefs that led to the crisis, weaknesses of the pre-crisis financial system, the lessons learned, and the possibility that it could have been prevented were considered at the NBER’s Summer Institute.

Notes on Social Security Reform: New papers from the National Bureau of Economic Research